CSKA Moscowvs
FC Rostov
COMPLETEDRussia · Cup · 10/14/2026, 5:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Rostov · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CSKA Moscow 4-0 FC Rostov
Original prediction
FC Rostov
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 57.5% | 33.2% | -24.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 24.3% | 26.2% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 5.14 | 18.3% | 40.6% | 22.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
22.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
FC Rostov
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
FC Rostov has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00