Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grobiņa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2
Cēsis are 2W-0D-0L in their last 2 (WW), averaging 3.50 scored and 1.50 conceded, while Grobiņa are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 7 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Grobiņa hold a 32.9-point power-rating edge (47.5 v 80.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.0% in the Cup, while Grobiņa holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 83% BTTS chance and 85% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Grobiņa
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Grobiņa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 3.50/1.50
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40