Crystal Palace Wvs
Watford W
COMPLETEDEngland · WSL Cup · 9/23/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Crystal Palace W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Crystal Palace W 1-0 Watford W
Original prediction
Crystal Palace W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.19 | 74.6% | 56.6% | -18.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.73 | 15.5% | 22.2% | 6.7 pts |
| Away | 8.97 | 9.9% | 21.2% | 11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Crystal Palace W
Probability
56.6%
Model confidence
56.6%
Crystal Palace W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00