Crystal Palace Wvs
Chelsea W
COMPLETEDEngland · FA WSL · 10/25/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chelsea W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-3 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Crystal Palace W 1-3 Chelsea W
Original prediction
Chelsea W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 20.92 | 4.4% | 12.9% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 10.89 | 8.5% | 16.6% | 8.2 pts |
| Away | 1.06 | 87.1% | 70.5% | -16.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.0–311%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Chelsea W
Probability
70.5%
Model confidence
70.5%
Chelsea W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40