Crystal Palacevs
Lech Poznan
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 9/17/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Crystal Palace · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Crystal Palace 4-0 Lech Poznan
Original prediction
Crystal Palace
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 06:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 69.8% | 39.1% | -30.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.19 | 18.3% | 25.3% | 7.0 pts |
| Away | 7.93 | 11.9% | 35.7% | 23.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-30.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Crystal Palace
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Crystal Palace has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40