Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cruzeiro · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Cruzeiro are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DLDLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Vitoria are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Cruzeiro hold an 8.7-point power-rating edge (51.3 v 42.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.9% in the Serie A, while Cruzeiro holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cruzeiro
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
Cruzeiro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00