Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cruzeiro · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Cruzeiro are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Palestino are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWWDL), averaging 2.40 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Cruzeiro hold a 20.4-point power-rating edge (60.0 v 39.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.4% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Cruzeiro holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 22% BTTS chance and 17% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cruzeiro
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
Cruzeiro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20