Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cruzeiro · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Cruzeiro are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (DLDDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Lanus are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDDL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Cruzeiro hold a 19.3-point power-rating edge (60.0 v 40.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.9% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Cruzeiro holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 33% BTTS chance and 30% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cruzeiro
Probability
51.9%
Model confidence
51.9%
Cruzeiro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60