Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cruzeiro · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Cruzeiro are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Gremio are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLDL), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Cruzeiro hold a 7.3-point power-rating edge (52.6 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.5% in the Serie A, while Cruzeiro holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 40% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cruzeiro
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Cruzeiro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60