Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cruzeiro · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Cruzeiro are 2W-0D-2L in their last 4 (LLWW), averaging 1.75 scored and 1.75 conceded, while Gremio are 4W-0D-0L in their last 4 (WWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 8 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Cruzeiro hold a 4.0-point power-rating edge (51.3 v 47.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.7% in the Serie A, while Cruzeiro holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cruzeiro
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Cruzeiro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.75/1.75
GF 8 · GA 0 · avg 2.00/0.00