Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cruz Azul 3-3 Toluca
Original prediction
Toluca
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 06:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.56 | 36.2% | 25.2% | -11.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.2% | 21.5% | -5.8 pts |
| Away | 2.53 | 36.5% | 53.3% | 16.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.40 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Toluca
Probability
53.3%
Model confidence
53.3%
Toluca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Cruz AzulLLWWW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TolucaLWWWW
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Cruz AzulToluca
59.3Attack74.1
44.4Defence66.7
55.6Form70.4
55.6Power70.1
1.26xG2.25