Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cruz Azul · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (11%), 4-0 (10%), 3-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cruz Azul 5-0 FC Juarez
Original prediction
Cruz Azul
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.30 | 71.7% | 82.4% | 10.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.26 | 17.7% | 11.1% | -6.6 pts |
| Away | 8.78 | 10.6% | 6.5% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.30 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–011%
- 2.4–010%
- 3.3–19%
Predicted outcome
Cruz Azul
Probability
82.4%
Model confidence
82.4%
Cruz Azul has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Cruz AzulDDDLL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FC JuarezDLWLL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Cruz AzulFC Juarez
66.7Attack24.2
36.4Defence21.2
51.5Form12.1
54.0Power22.4
3.72xG0.86