Cruz Azulvs
Club America
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 9/13/2026, 3:15:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Club America · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cruz Azul 4-3 Club America
Original prediction
Club America
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.66 | 35.0% | 28.5% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 27.2% | 24.7% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.46 | 37.8% | 46.7% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Club America
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Club America has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80