Cruz Azul U21vs
Toluca U21
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX U21 · 9/26/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca U21 · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cruz Azul U21 2-3 Toluca U21
Original prediction
Toluca U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 02:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.78 | 32.1% | 23.1% | -9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.5% | 25.8% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.22 | 40.3% | 51.1% | 10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Toluca U21
Probability
51.1%
Model confidence
51.1%
Toluca U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40