Crusaders FCvs
Larne
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Premiership · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Larne · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Crusaders FC 0-3 Larne
Original prediction
Larne
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.38 | 12.3% | 24.1% | 11.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.07 | 17.9% | 24.3% | 6.4 pts |
| Away | 1.30 | 69.8% | 51.6% | -18.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.30 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Larne
Probability
51.6%
Model confidence
51.6%
Larne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Crusaders FCLWLWL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
LarneWWWWW
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Crusaders FCLarne
55.6Attack66.7
48.1Defence83.3
55.6Form88.9
54.8Power81.1
1.17xG1.82