Crusaders FCvs
Dungannon Swifts
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Premiership · 9/15/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dungannon Swifts · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Crusaders FC 3-0 Dungannon Swifts
Original prediction
Dungannon Swifts
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.33 | 27.1% | 28.9% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 25.8% | 25.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.91 | 47.1% | 45.7% | -1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Dungannon Swifts
Probability
45.7%
Model confidence
45.7%
Dungannon Swifts has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20