Crotonevs
Salernitana
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone C · 9/26/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Crotone 2-1 Salernitana
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.79 | 32.4% | 34.6% | 2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 27.9% | 30.3% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 39.7% | 35.1% | -4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.3%
Model confidence
35.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CrotoneDLDDL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
SalernitanaWDWDD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
CrotoneSalernitana
47.4Attack43.9
58.8Defence63.2
45.6Form60.5
52.1Power58.2
1.09xG1.01