Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Crotone · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Crotone 0-2 Inter U23
Original prediction
Crotone
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 47.1% | 41.8% | -5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 28.9% | 29.0% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.74 | 24.1% | 29.1% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Crotone
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Crotone has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CrotoneDDLLL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Inter U23LLDWD
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
CrotoneInter U23
47.4Attack50.0
58.8Defence50.0
45.6Form50.0
52.1Power50.0
1.40xG1.03