Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Crotone · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Crotone are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Cosenza are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Crotone hold a 41.2-point power-rating edge (64.8 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.8% in the Coppa Italia Serie C, while Crotone holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Crotone
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
12.8%
Crotone has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00