Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Crotone · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Crotone 0-1 Casarano
Original prediction
Crotone
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 43.4% | 36.2% | -7.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.4% | 28.8% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.09 | 29.2% | 34.9% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Crotone
Probability
36.2%
Model confidence
36.2%
Crotone has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CrotoneDLLWD
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
CasaranoLDLLD
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
CrotoneCasarano
33.3Attack40.7
50.0Defence48.1
23.3Form40.7
38.6Power45.5
1.07xG1.16