World · World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · 10/9/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Croatia W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 4-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Croatia W 0-4 Iceland W
Original prediction
Croatia W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 14.91 | 6.1% | 42.3% | 36.2 pts |
| Draw | 7.35 | 12.3% | 20.9% | 8.6 pts |
| Away | 1.11 | 81.6% | 36.8% | -44.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
36.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–012%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.4–010%
Predicted outcome
Croatia W
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Croatia W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 1 · avg 3.00/0.20
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80