Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spain · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Croatia 1-2 Spain
Original prediction
Spain
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9.52 | 10.0% | 21.3% | 11.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.94 | 16.0% | 22.9% | 6.9 pts |
| Away | 1.28 | 74.1% | 55.8% | -18.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Spain
Probability
55.8%
Model confidence
55.8%
Spain has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CroatiaLLWWL
GF 5 · GA 15 · avg 1.00/3.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
SpainWWWWD
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
CroatiaSpain
33.3Attack100.0
0.0Defence55.6
33.3Form100.0
25.1Power87.3
1.07xG1.94