Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
England · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Croatia 0-7 England
Original prediction
England
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.53 | 21.0% | 31.4% | 10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.93 | 24.2% | 26.7% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 1.73 | 54.8% | 41.9% | -12.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
England
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
England has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CroatiaLWWLL
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
EnglandWLWWL
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
CroatiaEngland
50.0Attack66.7
16.7Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
42.7Power56.2
1.37xG1.47