Croatia U21vs
Hungary U21
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · 9/26/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Croatia U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 3-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Croatia U21 3-1 Hungary U21
Original prediction
Croatia U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.24 | 74.1% | 76.6% | 2.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.43 | 16.8% | 13.9% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 10.03 | 9.1% | 9.5% | 0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.3–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Croatia U21
Probability
76.6%
Model confidence
76.6%
Croatia U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20