Serie BSerie B
Sunday, 26 July 2026Last updated 10:09
Criciuma

Criciuma

Home
WW
00
Full time
Nautico Recife

Nautico Recife

Away
LL
GoalVio prediction
57% confidence
Criciuma(57%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Prediction missed— Result: Draw
Win probability
Criciuma
57%
Draw
26%
Nautico Recife
17%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Criciuma
54
Nautico Recife
18
Defence
Criciuma
82
Nautico Recife
27
Momentum
Criciuma
100
Nautico Recife
0
Danger (xG)
Criciuma
1.35
Nautico Recife
0.95
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Criciuma)
1.35
avg per match
xG for (Nautico Recife)
0.95
avg per match
xG against (Criciuma)
0.45
avg per match
xG against (Nautico Recife)
1.94
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
CriciumaCriciuma
WWWW
Nautico RecifeNautico Recife
LLLLW

Probability breakdown

57% confidence
Criciuma57%
Draw26%
Nautico Recife17%

Criciuma leads with 57% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Criciuma head into this in Serie B fixture in decent form (WW), while Nautico Recife arrive in mixed form (LL). Criciuma have a 100% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 0% for Nautico Recife over 2 games.

Tactically, this looks like a one-sided contest. Criciuma's decent attack (54/100) faces a vulnerable Nautico Recife defence (27/100), while Nautico Recife's attack is up against a watertight Criciuma backline. The model sees a clear mismatch in Criciuma's favour.

Criciuma have won all 2 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game at home. Nautico Recife have won 1 of their last 4 away fixtures, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per away game.

Nautico Recife have generated 1.01 xG per game recently while conceding 2.08 xG per match, underperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches.

There is no head-to-head data between Criciuma and Nautico Recife in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Criciuma to win with 57% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Criciuma 5689%, Draw 2575%, Nautico Recife 1736%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Recent form

Criciuma

Criciuma

W
@ Ponte Preta
9 Jul 2026
21
W
vs Sport Recife
4 Jul 2026
10
W
vs São Bernardo
27 Jun 2026
10
W
@ America Mineiro
24 Jun 2026
10
Nautico Recife

Nautico Recife

L
@ CRB
17 Jul 2026
12
L
@ Avai
12 Jul 2026
02
xG 1.0
L
vs Goias
28 Jun 2026
01
L
@ Vila Nova
20 Jun 2026
34
W
@ Operario-PR
16 May 2026
31

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Criciuma vs Nautico Recife?

GoalVio's model predicts Criciuma to win with 57% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Criciuma vs Nautico Recife?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Nautico Recife?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Criciuma vs Nautico Recife?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more