Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Criciuma 0-0 Juventude, with an exact score probability of 37%.
Prediction record
Final result
Criciuma 0-2 Juventude
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.28 | 40.7% | 34.2% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.71 | 34.3% | 39.2% | 5.0 pts |
| Away | 3.72 | 25.0% | 26.6% | 1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.0 pts
Projected Score
Criciuma 0–0 Juventude
Exact score probability: 37%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CriciumaWLLDW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
JuventudeDDWWD
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CriciumaJuventude
35.9Attack35.9
75.6Defence80.8
60.3Form60.3
59.8Power60.7
0.55xG0.48