Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Criciuma 0-0 Cuiaba, with an exact score probability of 38%.
Prediction record
Final result
Criciuma 2-0 Cuiaba
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.94 | 48.1% | 38.6% | -9.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 30.6% | 38.6% | 8.0 pts |
| Away | 4.36 | 21.3% | 22.8% | 1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.1 pts
Projected Score
Criciuma 0–0 Cuiaba
Exact score probability: 38%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CriciumaLLDWL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
CuiabaWDWWD
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
CriciumaCuiaba
34.7Attack30.7
74.7Defence74.7
58.7Form48.0
58.7Power53.4
0.58xG0.42