Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Criciuma · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Criciuma 0-0 Avai, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Criciuma 3-0 Avai
Original prediction
Criciuma
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 54.5% | 47.8% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 28.1% | 31.4% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 5.34 | 17.3% | 20.9% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.8 pts
Projected Score
Criciuma 0–0 Avai
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Criciuma
Probability
47.8%
Model confidence
47.8%
Criciuma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CriciumaLLLWL
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AvaiLDLLL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CriciumaAvai
32.2Attack34.5
69.0Defence56.3
54.0Form34.5
54.1Power44.1
0.94xG0.57