Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wrexham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Crewe are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWD), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Wrexham are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDDLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Wrexham hold a 33.8-point power-rating edge (36.7 v 70.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.4% in the EFL Trophy, while Wrexham holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Wrexham
Probability
50.4%
Model confidence
50.4%
Wrexham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60