GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 12/3/2025, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Crewe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Crewe are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDDWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Stockport County are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLDLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Stockport County hold a 4.1-point power-rating edge (36.7 v 40.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.6% in the EFL Trophy, while Crewe holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Crewe

Probability

38.6%

Model confidence

38.6%

Crewe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

CreweLDDWW

GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Stockport CountyDLDLW

GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
CreweStockport County
22.2Attack33.3
44.4Defence50.0
33.3Form33.3
36.7Power40.9
1.56xG1.38
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