GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 11/21/2023, 7:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Crewe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Crewe are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Newcastle United U21 are 0W-1D-2L in their last 3 (DLL), averaging 0.33 scored and 1.33 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 8 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Crewe hold a 3.8-point power-rating edge (36.7 v 32.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.2% in the EFL Trophy, while Crewe holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Crewe

Probability

39.2%

Model confidence

39.2%

Crewe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

CreweWWLWW

GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Newcastle United U21DLL

GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.33/1.33

BTTS 1/3O2.5 0/3
CreweNewcastle United U21
22.2Attack22.2
44.4Defence55.6
33.3Form11.1
36.7Power32.9
1.57xG1.36
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