GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 8/27/2024, 6:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Crewe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Crewe are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Liverpool U21 are 1W-0D-3L in their last 4 (LLLW), averaging 1.50 scored and 2.75 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 9 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Crewe hold a 7.5-point power-rating edge (36.7 v 29.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.7% in the EFL Trophy, while Crewe holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 69% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Crewe

Probability

46.7%

Model confidence

46.7%

Crewe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

CreweDLLLL

GF 1 · GA 10 · avg 0.20/2.00

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Liverpool U21LLLW

GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.50/2.75

BTTS 2/4O2.5 4/4
CreweLiverpool U21
22.2Attack50.0
44.4Defence8.3
33.3Form25.0
36.7Power29.2
2.07xG1.53
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