GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/2/2025, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Chesterfield · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Crewe are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Chesterfield are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Chesterfield hold a 31.6-point power-rating edge (36.7 v 68.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.3% in the EFL Trophy, while Chesterfield holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Chesterfield

Probability

47.3%

Model confidence

47.3%

Chesterfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

CreweLLWWL

GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ChesterfieldDWLWL

GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
CreweChesterfield
22.2Attack53.3
44.4Defence66.7
33.3Form73.3
36.7Power68.4
1.19xG1.77
View match centre →