Super LeagueSuper League
Saturday, 18 July 2026Last updated 17:00
Creck

Creck

Home
L
01
Full time
Mitundu Baptist

Mitundu Baptist

Away
W
GoalVio prediction
35% confidence
Draw(35%)
Win probability
Creck
32%
Draw
35%
Mitundu Baptist
33%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Creck
34
Mitundu Baptist
94
Defence
Creck
6
Mitundu Baptist
27
Momentum
Creck
0
Mitundu Baptist
100
Danger (xG)
Creck
0.90
Mitundu Baptist
2.70
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 0.73 xG for Creck and 0.76 xG for Mitundu Baptist. Creck's projected xG of 0.73 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 0-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 0 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.Mitundu Baptist's defensive record — 4 clean sheets in 10 matches — combined with Creck's limited attacking output (1 clean sheets conceded in 10 games) supports the model's projection of at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 1.48 — low attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 0-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 0 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.

xG for (Creck)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Mitundu Baptist)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Creck)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Mitundu Baptist)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
CreckCreck
L
Mitundu BaptistMitundu Baptist
WLL

Probability breakdown

35% confidence
Creck32%
Draw35%
Mitundu Baptist33%

Draw leads with 35% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Creck vs Mitundu Baptist: Model Points to a Closely-Fought Draw

Creck host Mitundu Baptist in Super League. Creck have recorded LWLLLL in recent matches while Mitundu Baptist arrive with a run of WLWDWD. These sides have met 1 times recently, averaging 1.0 goals per game.

Why GoalVio backs this

Neither side carries a decisive edge in the metrics that most reliably separate teams at this level — xG creation, defensive solidity, and recent form are all closely matched. When the underlying football inputs are this evenly distributed, a draw is the most defensible projection.

Biggest risk: The draw projection is inherently fragile — a single moment of quality from either side could produce a winner. The model sees no clear favourite, which means the actual result is highly sensitive to in-game events and individual quality.

Risk factors

  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

Creck

Creck

L
vs Kamuzu Barracks
16 May 2026
13
Mitundu Baptist

Mitundu Baptist

W
vs Blue Eagles
27 Jun 2026
32
L
vs Be Forward Wanderers
16 May 2026
02
L
@ Masters FC
11 May 2026
02

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Creck vs Mitundu Baptist?

GoalVio's model predicts a draw with 35% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Creck vs Mitundu Baptist?

A predicted scoreline has not yet been generated for this fixture.

Will both teams score in Creck vs Mitundu Baptist?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Creck vs Mitundu Baptist?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more