Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CRB · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CRB 2-1 Londrina
Original prediction
CRB
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.33 | 69.6% | 56.1% | -13.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.92 | 18.8% | 22.1% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 7.96 | 11.6% | 21.8% | 10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
CRB
Probability
56.1%
Model confidence
56.1%
CRB has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CRBLDWLW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
LondrinaWDLLL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CRBLondrina
50.0Attack42.2
52.9Defence52.0
51.0Form31.4
52.7Power42.2
1.60xG1.05