Cray Wanderersvs
Maidstone Utd
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maidstone Utd · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cray Wanderers 1-1 Maidstone Utd
Original prediction
Maidstone Utd
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.71 | 15.8% | 26.1% | 10.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.37 | 20.7% | 23.6% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 1.42 | 63.5% | 50.2% | -13.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.37 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Maidstone Utd
Probability
50.2%
Model confidence
50.2%
Maidstone Utd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80