Cracovia Krakowvs
Legia Warszawa
COMPLETEDPoland · Ekstraklasa · 10/17/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Legia Warszawa · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (15%), 0-1 (13%), 0-3 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Legia Warszawa
Original prediction
Legia Warszawa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.75 | 33.7% | 15.7% | -18.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.8% | 20.1% | -7.7 pts |
| Away | 2.40 | 38.5% | 64.2% | 25.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.33 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
25.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–215%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–310%
Predicted outcome
Legia Warszawa
Probability
64.2%
Model confidence
64.2%
Legia Warszawa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00