Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Covadonga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Covadonga 2-1 Siero
Original prediction
Covadonga
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 69.0% | 46.3% | -22.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.79 | 19.1% | 25.8% | 6.7 pts |
| Away | 7.63 | 12.0% | 28.0% | 16.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Covadonga
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
46.3%
Covadonga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CovadongaLLLWW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SieroNo completed matches
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
BTTS 0/0O2.5 0/0
CovadongaSiero
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.62xG1.38