Costa Ricavs
Haiti
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 10/5/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Haiti · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Costa Rica 2-0 Haiti
Original prediction
Haiti
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 38.8% | 31.3% | -7.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.4% | 24.7% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.64 | 34.8% | 44.0% | 9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Haiti
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Haiti has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Costa RicaWLLLL
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
HaitiWWWLW
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Costa RicaHaiti
66.7Attack100.0
33.3Defence66.7
33.3Form100.0
44.0Power90.0
1.51xG2.24