Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tre Penne · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Cosmos are 1W-2D-1L in their last 4 (DWDL), averaging 1.25 scored and 0.75 conceded, while Tre Penne are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WDLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 3.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 9 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Tre Penne hold an 18.8-point power-rating edge (36.5 v 55.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.4% in the Coppa Titano, while Tre Penne holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tre Penne
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Tre Penne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.25/0.75
GF 5 · GA 19 · avg 1.00/3.80