GGOALVIO

San-Marino · Campionato · 9/30/2023, 1:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Cosmos · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0

Highconfidence

Cosmos are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDWDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while San Giovanni are 1W-0D-2L in their last 3 (LLW), averaging 1.33 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 8 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Cosmos hold a 14.2-point power-rating edge (66.4 v 52.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 67.0% in the Campionato, while Cosmos holds the strongest overall chance at 67% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Cosmos

Probability

67.0%

Model confidence

67.0%

Cosmos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

CosmosDDWDL

GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
San GiovanniLLW

GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 1.33/2.00

BTTS 2/3O2.5 2/3
CosmosSan Giovanni
79.0Attack59.4
68.6Defence52.1
61.9Form50.0
66.4Power52.2
2.54xG0.99
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