Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cosmos · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (14%), 4-0 (12%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cosmos 1-1 Libertas
Original prediction
Cosmos
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 60.4% | 82.0% | 21.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 22.4% | 11.5% | -10.9 pts |
| Away | 5.27 | 17.2% | 6.6% | -10.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.05 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
21.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–014%
- 2.4–012%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Cosmos
Probability
82.0%
Model confidence
82.0%
Cosmos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CosmosDDWWL
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
LibertasDLLLW
GF 3 · GA 16 · avg 0.60/3.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
CosmosLibertas
79.0Attack35.6
68.6Defence37.8
61.9Form25.6
66.4Power35.8
3.48xG0.56