Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cosmos · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 3-0
Cosmos are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Libertas are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 3.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Cosmos hold a 30.7-point power-rating edge (66.4 v 35.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.3% in the Campionato, while Cosmos holds the strongest overall chance at 88% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cosmos
Probability
87.7%
Model confidence
14.3%
Cosmos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 3 · GA 16 · avg 0.60/3.20