Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sassuolo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Cosenza are 2W-1D-0L in their last 3 (DWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.33 conceded, while Sassuolo are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 8 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Sassuolo hold a 27.8-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 51.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.3% in the Coppa Italia, while Sassuolo holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sassuolo
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Sassuolo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/1.33
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20