Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cosenza 0-2 Foggia
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.60 | 35.1% | 33.8% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 29.1% | 30.8% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.54 | 35.8% | 35.4% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.8%
Model confidence
35.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CosenzaLDLDL
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FoggiaWLDLL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
CosenzaFoggia
0.0Attack35.1
0.0Defence61.4
0.0Form42.1
7.0Power47.8
0.99xG1.07