Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Coruxo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Coruxo 1-1 Gernika
Original prediction
Coruxo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 45.7% | 42.5% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 29.8% | 29.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.65 | 24.5% | 28.2% | 3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Coruxo
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Coruxo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CoruxoLDWWL
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
GernikaWWDDD
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
CoruxoGernika
45.1Attack50.0
63.7Defence50.0
51.0Form50.0
54.6Power50.0
1.45xG0.97