Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cornellà · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cornellà 1-1 Peralada
Original prediction
Cornellà
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 October 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 54.0% | 42.2% | -11.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.2% | 27.6% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.83 | 18.7% | 30.3% | 11.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.33 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Cornellà
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Cornellà has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CornellàLDDWD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PeraladaDWDLD
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
CornellàPeralada
33.3Attack50.0
66.7Defence50.0
33.3Form50.0
45.3Power50.0
1.70xG1.51