Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cork City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cork City 5-1 UCD
Original prediction
Cork City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 59.7% | 61.8% | 2.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.12 | 21.8% | 20.3% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 4.87 | 18.4% | 17.9% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Cork City
Probability
61.8%
Model confidence
61.8%
Cork City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Cork CityLDWDW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
UCDDDWDL
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
Cork CityUCD
68.8Attack59.1
68.8Defence57.0
73.1Form52.7
70.5Power56.0
1.99xG0.97