Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Coritiba are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Sao Paulo are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 49.2 against 49.3. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.6% in the Serie A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60