GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 10/25/2024, 12:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Corinthians are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWDLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Racing Club are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Corinthians hold a 4.2-point power-rating edge (57.3 v 53.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.1% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 37% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

39.1%

Model confidence

39.1%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

CorinthiansDWDLL

GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Racing ClubWLDWL

GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CorinthiansRacing Club
29.2Attack61.1
75.0Defence50.0
58.3Form44.4
57.3Power53.1
1.00xG0.84
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