Corinthiansvs
Palmeiras
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 4/12/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Corinthians are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Palmeiras are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Palmeiras hold a 14.5-point power-rating edge (53.2 v 67.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.9% in the Serie A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 30% BTTS chance and 22% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
40.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80